In its second bulletin with regard to the storm, the Public Authority for Civil Aviation’s (PACA) National Multi Hazard and Early Warning Centre stated that the location of the centre of Luban was at latitude 12.1° North and longitude 61.1° East. “It’s centered around 940km away from Salalah with wind speed ranging between 35 and 40 knots (64-74km/hr).”
It further said that the tropical storm continued to move towards the west-northwest. “There will be an indirect impact of the storm on Dhofar and Al Wusta starting from October 10 with isolated rain and rising sea waves with maximum height between 2m and 3m.”
The centre stated that it is monitoring the tropical system closely. PACA has advised people to follow its latest weather bulletins and reports.
With the storm still some distance away from land, predicting its path continued to be debated by different weather channels and forecast models.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in its forecast model stated that the storm was moving west in the Arabian Sea as it approached southern Oman. “It will be steered by high pressure from the north and move southwest off Yemen to the Gulf of Aden to make landfall in Djibouti and dissipate.”
The American Global Forecast System predicted that the tropical storm will move west-northwest then northwest, and strengthen in the Arabian Sea with landfall in Oman. “Then it will move southwest through Oman as a subtropical cyclone and northwest into Saudi Arabia and dissipate.”
The Indian Meteorological Department also stated that the storm is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours. “It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards south Oman and the Yemen coast during the next five days.”
Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said, “Cyclone Luban is heading to south Yemen and Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains will commence over Yemen and south Oman by October 12.”